Russia Invades Ukraine. Volume 4

[redback911]

TheJimi said:

I can tell you're just itching for a scrap

The Ukrainians are really struggling to hold off the Russians at various points. It doesn't take too much imagination to envision the logical conclusion of that.

Russia is reportedly amassing a substantial force of 500,000 troops, according to today's news. They are launching attacks on multiple fronts along the 1200km border. This new offensive comes at a critical time as acute supply shortages are hitting the Ukrainian front line. If not effectively countered, this offensive could mark a severe and possibly catastrophic phase of the war.

Meanwhile, the West has been hinting at the possibility of deploying troops in Ukraine for weeks, hopefully to prepare the electorate for such a move.

We have not adequately supported Ukraine thus far. The pressing question now is whether NATO should engage Russia in Ukraine while a significant portion of the Ukrainian army remains intact and morale is high, or wait until Ukraine collapses and then defend closer to NATO borders against a Russian army entrenched in Ukraine.

[hidetheelephants]

TheJimi said:

I can tell you're just itching for a scrap

The Ukrainians are really struggling to hold off the Russians at various points. It doesn't take too much imagination to envision the logical conclusion of that.

Where? The russians are active in places they've not been active for a year or more but haven't advanced anywhere beyond the ukrainian defensive line, the effects of the 6 month US weapons drought won't dissipate instantly. I can imagine an infinite array of possibilities from a total russian victory to a total ukrainian victory.

[Biggy Stardust]

redback911 said:

Russia is reportedly amassing a substantial force of 500,000 troops, according to today's news. They are launching attacks on multiple fronts along the 1200km border. This new offensive comes at a critical time as acute supply shortages are hitting the Ukrainian front line. If not effectively countered, this offensive could mark a severe and possibly catastrophic phase of the war.

This is it- they're finally committing their best stuff that's been held in reserve; after 2 years of training & maintenance/upgrades they should be the mightiest fighting force ever assembled.

[BikeBikeBIke]

There isn't going to be a dramatic breakthrough. Russia can't do that - they no longer have the vehicles and tbe tactics. 2024 is still going to badly suck for Ukraine. (Amd Russia.)

[Talksteer]

Wadeski said:

CoolHands said:

What about the rest of Europe? Are we b France / Germany / Spain / Italy providing basic stuff? If not why? I thought Europe was worried about putin and what he will do after Ukraine

Because we are lead by f*cking cowards who don't learn from history....

This, rather than giving 14 Challenger IIs we should have given all of them (who exactly were they built to fight), then re-acquired all the C1's in Jordan refurbed them and sent them 650 large capable MBTs. We can sort out new MBTs or even if they are the right platform for the future (they aren't, I would put a KE missile on most vehicles that get close to the front line and use a 120mm turreted mortar for dropping HE onto time sensitive targets, this would have its own drone) at a later date. Then re-activate the ammo production for them without all the modern luxuries of insensitive munitions and QA processes.

I would hope that DSTL is providing plenty of help with drones to Ukraine but again this should be more of a national endeavor, why aren't a significant portion of our engineering students designing and building drones which government then scales up production on so we're in a position to give them millions of jam resistant armed drones. Why aren't we putting out tenders to get small agile companies to build remote weapons systems which can detect and shoot down lancet drones and then scaling those companies up so every Ukrainian front line vehicle has active defence against drones and loitering munitions.

Why haven't we put out tenders to make a low cost guided artillery fuze that can be made in the millions out of COTS technology?

We should see this as an opportunity to convert some of our small engineering companies that work in motorsport, automation, food processing, farm equipment etc into the next generation of defence industrials since we have a place in Ukraine where we can bypass most of the red-tape, process, standards and incumbent suppliers which have diminished our defence and our industrial base.

The best thing about all of that is that apart from the actual equipment that leaves to get smashed up in Ukraine (which is the cheap bit) everything else gets recycled into the economy while in the process creating new IP and companies. ARIA should be all over this.

[Wozy68]

Biggy Stardust said:

redback911 said:

Russia is reportedly amassing a substantial force of 500,000 troops, according to today's news. They are launching attacks on multiple fronts along the 1200km border. This new offensive comes at a critical time as acute supply shortages are hitting the Ukrainian front line. If not effectively countered, this offensive could mark a severe and possibly catastrophic phase of the war.

This is it- they're finally committing their best stuff that's been held in reserve; after 2 years of training & maintenance/upgrades they should be the mightiest fighting force ever assembled.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f2NVHInoUc

[RichFN2]

Biggy Stardust said:

redback911 said:

Russia is reportedly amassing a substantial force of 500,000 troops, according to today's news. They are launching attacks on multiple fronts along the 1200km border. This new offensive comes at a critical time as acute supply shortages are hitting the Ukrainian front line. If not effectively countered, this offensive could mark a severe and possibly catastrophic phase of the war.

This is it- they're finally committing their best stuff that's been held in reserve; after 2 years of training & maintenance/upgrades they should be the mightiest fighting force ever assembled.

Its 50,000 and a large number of them are mercenaries recruited from 21 different countries. Unfortunately for Ukraine the breakthrough in Kharkiv oblast has been a success. Putin is claiming this is to create a buffer zone to protect Belgorod from shelling (this is likely to be true).

However Russia only need to advance to Lyptsi to put Kharkiv within range of Russian artillery. We can make fun all day about the Russian army but the situation is critical for Ukraine at the moment, and Zelenskyy postpones all foreign visits due to situation in Kharkiv to give you an idea how serious the situation is.

[Cheib]

king arthur said:

TheJimi said:

Unless Ukraine's allies pull something pretty bloody significant out of the hat, Ukraine is screwed, imo.

I can see Ukraine putting a shout out for allied boots on the ground (in whatever form that may take) before the end of the year. Whether that actually happens is another matter, but they'll definitely ask, imo.

I am starting to think that is what it's going to take to stop this. I think I saw one or two leaders saying that they have offered boots on the ground or are prepared to send but haven't been asked yet. Possibly one of the Baltics. It may well be not at the frontline of course.

European countries have two choices in my opinion. See Russia persevere and ultimately take control of Ukraine and thus be emboldened for "what's next"
or commit significantly greater resources. We have no idea what US support looks like after this year or to what extent there will be support....I think it will be down to Europe either to commit more military assets or to finance the purchase of kit from the US.

Yesterday's Telegraph podcast had a piece about this. Estonia who are apparently trying to talk to other NATO members about putting together a potential NATO "task force" to deploy to the West of the country so Ukrainian troops can be redeployed from there to the Eastern battle lines. Estonia have said they would consider sending their troops on a unilateral basis if needs be.

I think it is "when not if" for European troops to be deployed if Ukraine are going to win.

I think there is close to Zero chance of any kind of coalition sending troops in...whether it is Estonia or France it willl have to be individual countries.

[BikeBikeBIke]

Talksteer said:

This, rather than giving 14 Challenger IIs we should have given all of them (who exactly were they built to fight), then re-acquired all the C1's in Jordan refurbed them and sent them 650 large capable MBTs. We can sort out new MBTs or even if they are the right platform for the future (they aren't, I would put a KE missile on most vehicles that get close to the front line and use a 120mm turreted mortar for dropping HE onto time sensitive targets, this would have its own drone) at a later date. Then re-activate the ammo production for them without all the modern luxuries of insensitive munitions and QA processes.

I would hope that DSTL is providing plenty of help with drones to Ukraine but again this should be more of a national endeavor, why aren't a significant portion of our engineering students designing and building drones which government then scales up production on so we're in a position to give them millions of jam resistant armed drones. Why aren't we putting out tenders to get small agile companies to build remote weapons systems which can detect and shoot down lancet drones and then scaling those companies up so every Ukrainian front line vehicle has active defence against drones and loitering munitions.

Why haven't we put out tenders to make a low cost guided artillery fuze that can be made in the millions out of COTS technology?

We should see this as an opportunity to convert some of our small engineering companies that work in motorsport, automation, food processing, farm equipment etc into the next generation of defence industrials since we have a place in Ukraine where we can bypass most of the red-tape, process, standards and incumbent suppliers which have diminished our defence and our industrial base.

The best thing about all of that is that apart from the actual equipment that leaves to get smashed up in Ukraine (which is the cheap bit) everything else gets recycled into the economy while in the process creating new IP and companies. ARIA should be all over this.

I don't know what most of those words mean, but I know I agree with them!

[halo34]

TheJimi said:

I don't think halo34 meant "roll in properly" as in break out the Gucci kit, rather, I suspect he meant rolling in properly as in, taking more chunks of Ukraine.

Thankyou yes this is what I meant - not sure what a slight language issue creates such a response on here

Whilst I am not necessarily saying they have all the means to do it - what I mean is what is our likely response as we watch more and more of the place being over-run even if its a slow process.

Throwing in kit piecemeal is going to continue to grind down our own reserves, but we aren't on a war footing to provide this large scale response - Ukraine lacks men and troops - with a drip feed of kit. I am only I guess putting my own thoughts out there that something needs to shift or the West stands to see Ukraine over-run eventually, Russia wont give up while its going momentum.

I therefore cant wonder but think unless there is a definitive shift in strategy from the West then basically what is going to change. We are obviously not doing them enough damage to withdraw either. So what changes?

[Digga]

Cheib said:

I think there is close to Zero chance of any kind of coalition sending troops in...whether it is Estonia or France it willl have to be individual countries.

It could be that subsequent events - what happens to the troops of those individual countires -may eventually be a catalyst for wider participation. If not coalitions, then just more countries.

[borcy]

Seems like the number of Russian troops reported has gone from 50k to 500k. That's quite a jump.

Could be under/over cooking reports for each sides propaganda. Could be a mistake.

I suppose we'll know soon enough.

[TheJimi]

halo34 said:

TheJimi said:

I don't think halo34 meant "roll in properly" as in break out the Gucci kit, rather, I suspect he meant rolling in properly as in, taking more chunks of Ukraine.

Thankyou yes this is what I meant - not sure what a slight language issue creates such a response on here

Whilst I am not necessarily saying they have all the means to do it - what I mean is what is our likely response as we watch more and more of the place being over-run even if its a slow process.

Throwing in kit piecemeal is going to continue to grind down our own reserves, but we aren't on a war footing to provide this large scale response - Ukraine lacks men and troops - with a drip feed of kit. I am only I guess putting my own thoughts out there that something needs to shift or the West stands to see Ukraine over-run eventually, Russia wont give up while its going momentum.

I therefore cant wonder but think unless there is a definitive shift in strategy from the West then basically what is going to change. We are obviously not doing them enough damage to withdraw either. So what changes?

I knew exactly what you meant. At least biggy didn't call you a Russian shill, which is progress, I suppose!

[Spare tyre]

borcy said:

Seems like the number of Russian troops reported has gone from 50k to 500k. That's quite a jump.

Could be under/over cooking reports for each sides propaganda. Could be a mistake.

I suppose we'll know soon enough.

I can’t see Russia being organised enough for 50 let alone 500

What awful times regardless

[bmwmike]

Can't imagine they managed to build up 500k troops and nobody noticed via satellite etc?

[Biggy Stardust]

TheJimi said:

I knew exactly what you meant. At least biggy didn't call you a Russian shill, which is progress, I suppose!

Biggy just suggested that he's talking about stuff that doesn't match reality.

[Iamnotkloot]

BikeBikeBIke said:

Talksteer said:

This, rather than giving 14 Challenger IIs we should have given all of them (who exactly were they built to fight), then re-acquired all the C1's in Jordan refurbed them and sent them 650 large capable MBTs. We can sort out new MBTs or even if they are the right platform for the future (they aren't, I would put a KE missile on most vehicles that get close to the front line and use a 120mm turreted mortar for dropping HE onto time sensitive targets, this would have its own drone) at a later date. Then re-activate the ammo production for them without all the modern luxuries of insensitive munitions and QA processes.

I would hope that DSTL is providing plenty of help with drones to Ukraine but again this should be more of a national endeavor, why aren't a significant portion of our engineering students designing and building drones which government then scales up production on so we're in a position to give them millions of jam resistant armed drones. Why aren't we putting out tenders to get small agile companies to build remote weapons systems which can detect and shoot down lancet drones and then scaling those companies up so every Ukrainian front line vehicle has active defence against drones and loitering munitions.

Why haven't we put out tenders to make a low cost guided artillery fuze that can be made in the millions out of COTS technology?

We should see this as an opportunity to convert some of our small engineering companies that work in motorsport, automation, food processing, farm equipment etc into the next generation of defence industrials since we have a place in Ukraine where we can bypass most of the red-tape, process, standards and incumbent suppliers which have diminished our defence and our industrial base.

The best thing about all of that is that apart from the actual equipment that leaves to get smashed up in Ukraine (which is the cheap bit) everything else gets recycled into the economy while in the process creating new IP and companies. ARIA should be all over this.

I don't know what most of those words mean, but I know I agree with them!

Yep, I agree too - good post from Talksteer

[halo34]

Biggy Stardust said:

Biggy just suggested that he's talking about stuff that doesn't match reality.

What that russia may roll into Ukraine at some point - or rather slowly make their way inwards in the face of less opposition?

[Bright Halo]

Not really sure what is going on. With all the satellite surveillance and intel the west have, how can Russia have amassed 500k troops and in secret?
Something is not right but I can't think what the purpose or reason is?

[hidetheelephants]

Bright Halo said:

Not really sure what is going on. With all the satellite surveillance and intel the west have, how can Russia have amassed 500k troops and in secret?
Something is not right but I can't think what the purpose or reason is?

It's bks, just like every previous time an unsubstantiated claim was made that the russians are about to break through or have amassed hundreds of thousands of troops and cannot be beaten.